terça-feira, 28 de junho de 2016

Brazilian Confidence Indicators - June 2016

By Carlos Soares Rodrigues

After year of economy deterioration, brazilian confidence indicators show us a picture about the recovery in activities.

Brazilian Consumer Confidence Index 
Confidence Consumer Index (non-seasonal) achieved 71.3 in june 2016, the highest level in 12 months. This result is mainly because the increase of consumers expectations for next months - it's the second month consecutive that this indicator improves.

The current situation indicator remain in the lowest historical levels. According Viviane Seda Bittencourt, Survey Consumers Coordinator, this weaknesses in current situation is because debts level represents a significant share in families income. In addition, it's important to remember that food prices increased strong because the weather conditions in previous months.

Brazilian Retail Confidence Index
Brazilian Retail Confidence Index (non-seasonal) totalized 70.9 in may 2016, the highest level since june 2015. This result is, mainly, because the better expectations for next three months that achieved 80.3, the highest level since may 2015.

Current situation showed a better situation, but weak if we analyse the moving average trend for three months. However, according FGV, the perception about current demand volume advanced 4.2 bps MoM. Antecent consumers indicators (consumer confidence) give us a picture that the recovery in retail sales are close.

Industry Survey
Industry Survey (non-seasonal) achieved 83.4 in june 2016, the better level since february 2015. This is increase is a result of the growing expectations for next months in three months consecutive.

Consumer and retail confidence signalize for a recovery in industry indicators, mainly in current situations.

The capacity utilization factor remain in historical lowest levels, but in quarter level it was the first increase since 2nd quarter 2013, when Brazil suffered the biggest government interventionism in decades in financial and utilities sectors.

The headwind in Brazil are the economy recovery in the following quarters after political definition and structural reforms, for else retirement and fiscal reforms. Investments can flows to Brazil and fiscal situation increase. So that we have good perspective about Brazilian economy, mainly, the next quarters from August when the Roussef's president future will be decide.

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